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Financial Advisor May 2009 James Picerno	A Necessary Evil What is crucial to the success of diversification is the price you pay for initiating exposure to different asset classes. At certain times, you're paid to assume risk; at other times you're not paid to assume risk.
Financial Planning May 1, 2010 Ken Solow	Strategy, Analyzed The reasons for a buy and hold, strategic asset allocation investment philosophy are flawed and planners should consider adding active portfolio management to their practices.
IndustryWeek April 7, 2010 Adam Gordon	Eight Ways to Critically Evaluate a Forecast Don't get caught up in 'worthless' prediction measures, such as long-range, detailed forecasts.
HBS Working Knowledge August 18, 2003 Lovallo & Kahneman	Optimism: Don't Let it Run Away with You Many M&A decisions may be the result of hubris. Here's a technique to help executives avoid the bad kind of optimism.
Financial Advisor December 2009 James Picerno	The First Step There are no easy answers for asset allocation, but at least there's a practical starting point.
Financial Advisor August 2005 Fowler & Rattiner	Averting Disaster A new archetype in financial planning is needed for individual investors.
Popular Mechanics December 20, 2007 Alex Hutchinson	Satellite to Measure Rain From Space, Outsmart Your Weatherman Rain precipitation is difficult to predict, so scientists are using satellites to improve predictions.
Financial Planning April 1, 2012 Allan S. Roth	Prediction Addiction Some clients think planners are soothsayers, able to see the future. And while the desire to predict the future is inherently human, it's usually destructive - particularly when it comes to investing.
CIO July 15, 2003 Ben Worthen	Future Results Not Guaranteed Contrary to what vendors tell you, computer systems alone are incapable of producing accurate forecasts.
The Motley Fool November 5, 2008 Dan Dzombak	What Do You Think the Market Will Do? Channel the economist inside you. Grab a sheet of paper and quiz yourself on how well you think the market is going to do over the next 10 years.
IEEE Spectrum August 2006 Robert Gall & David Parsons	It's Hurricane Season: Do You Know Where Your Storm is? Souped-up satellites, supercomputers, and superior science might soon mean you really can trust the weather report.
Financial Advisor September 2009 James Picerno	Economic Justice The details of how the business cycle affects the equity risk premium are emerging ... slowly.
Financial Advisor September 2010 Andrew Gluck	Broken Plans Financial advisors urgently need improved tools for coping with the economic mess we're in. What's to be done?
Financial Planning January 1, 2010 Allan S. Roth	Addiction to Prediction Market outlooks give people a false sense of certainty about the future and almost inevitably hurts their returns.
IEEE Spectrum December 2005 Tekla S. Perry	Hurricane Watchers Hit Their Mark Hurricane Katrina, despite the tremendous problems with the evacuation of New Orleans, provided a vivid example of today's more skillful hurricane predicting.
Financial Advisor March 2011 Somnath Basu	Back To Basics Advisors don't need to rely on complicated models to help clients avert losses.
Financial Advisor March 2006 J. Michael Martin	Passive Is Not Enough Active portfolio management provides a great opportunity to grow your financial advisory practice.
Financial Advisor August 2009 Harold Evensky	Maybe MPT Isn't Dead? Before they decide to kill modern portfolio theory, advisors should consider the alternatives and their risks.
Financial Advisor October 2011 Roy Diliberto	Rules Of Dumb Some advisors use rules that dumb down our profession.
Fast Company February 2014 J.J. McCorvey	A Storm Brews over Weather Nowcasting apps such as Dark Sky are threatening the Weather Channel's dominance. Can forecasting's biggest brand keep up?
Investment Advisor September 2006 Mike Patton	Risk Manager A view from the trenches on the benefits and drawbacks of the financial planning profession's Monte Carlo simulation. When the software is used properly, the client wins, the practitioner wins, and the financial services industry wins.
Financial Advisor October 2005 David Reilly	Is Risk Really A Four Letter Word? Once esoteric investing strategies, such as managed currency and commodity futures, real estate, short selling, arbitrage and event-driven strategies, allow portfolio risk management to be taken to the next level. Advisers, take note.
The Motley Fool May 28, 2009 Morgan Housel	The Recession Is Almost Over! Or so says one group of economists. But here are a few reasons to be skeptical.
Financial Planning February 1, 2013 Allan S. Roth	Investing in Bonds: Shaky Future Ahead? Here s a fearless prediction: In the years ahead, bond investors won t enjoy stellar returns like those of the last five to 10 years.
Financial Advisor February 2010 Roy Diliberto	Basic Truths These truths for financial life planners form the foundation of their integrity.
The Motley Fool June 22, 2009 Ken Solow	The Untaught Art of Developing an Investment Forecast Buy-and-Hold Debate: It is only with the tailwind of an accurate forecast that investors can hope to earn excess returns.
The Motley Fool October 18, 2011 Morgan Housel	Everyone Believes It, but Most Will Be Wrong The power of bad forecasts. Some of these predictions are almost certain to never come true. Which ones? We don't know. No one does. That's the point.
Financial Planning January 1, 2009 Donald Jay Korn	Outlook 2009 The long-term outlook is brighter than the current vista. Markets have always turned up after downturns and there's no reason to think this pattern will end.
Financial Planning October 1, 2010 Bob Veres	What's Next for Planners When we cast our gaze forward at the changes taking place in the financial planning profession, a lot of new variables creep into the formula: the rapid evolution of technology, demographic and societal changes, plus wild cards like the recent Great Recession and financial reform legislation.
Financial Planning January 1, 2005 Donald Jay Korn	Fancy Footwork Just as the economy is expected to muddle through this year, consensus forecasts indicate parallel plodding in the financial markets, with unspectacular returns for stocks and bonds. Financial planners seeking to thrive in 2005 may need to develop new tactics.
Financial Planning October 1, 2010 Michael Kitces	What's Next for Ideas Although it ultimately attempts to address many of the same financial problems as does traditional financial planning, the Life Cycle Finance framework has a different perspective, and leads us to explore new solutions.
HBS Working Knowledge December 5, 2012 James Heskett	Should Managers Bother Listening to Predictions? Recent books by Nate Silver and Nassim Nicholas Taleb provide insights on how predictions work (or don't), leaving us to wonder, should we use predictions at all when planning for the future?
Financial Planning June 1, 2006 Bob Veres	Investment Heresies Advisers need to stay open to any new theories that test the value of Modern Portfolio Theory. Based on an informal survey, more than half of all advisers are making at least small deviations from a strict MPT/MVO strategy. So the profession is already beyond the current paradigm.
IndustryWeek November 1, 2008 David Blanchard	Top 10 Demand Planning Strategies Learn to trust the numbers and manage by exception.
CFO July 15, 2009 Alix Stuart	Imperfect Futures Is business forecasting an art, a science, or an exercise in futility? As the recession drags on, companies rethink their attitudes, and their approaches.
Knowledge@Wharton J. Scott Armstrong	Forecasting in Conflicts: How to Predict What Your Opponent Will Do The author of Principles of Forecasting talks about his research into role-playing as a tool for leaders in both business and government who face crucial decisions in situations ranging from military clashes to marketing challenges...
HBS Working Knowledge October 18, 2004 Ann Cullen	The Bias of Wall Street Analysts Historically, stock analysts' recommendations have been swayed by business relationships between the analyst's employer and the target company, says Professor Mark Bradshaw. Have recent SEC reforms helped?
Entrepreneur February 2007 Mark Henricks	Using an Online Trading Market to Predict Success Businesses are using prediction markets to see what their futures may hold.
IndustryWeek April 1, 2009 Nick Zubko	What Are the Odds? Predictions are difficult in an unstable economy, but there are still ways to turn your material forecast into more than an educated guess.
The Motley Fool July 13, 2006 Tim Beyers	Boeing Flaps Its Arms for Take-Off Value investors tend to ignore rosy predictions when assessing companies. Don't count recent Boeing owners among the value crowd. The aircraft maker recently upwardly revised its 20-year revenue forecast from global aircraft sales by $500 billion.
IndustryWeek February 1, 2007 David Blanchard	How To Get Your Forecasts Wrong, In Ten Easy Lessons Learn what to do - and what not to do - from this list of "forecasting fallacies."
Financial Advisor June 2008 Machuga et al.	Hearing The Whispers Whisper forecasts, while relatively new, appear to be more accurate than traditional methods advisors use in evaluating individual securities.
Financial Advisor July 2011	Frontline News Advisors Using Fewer Asset Managers... The New CFPs... Avoid The Analyst Herd... etc.
The Motley Fool December 29, 2010 Selena Maranjian	Follow the Easy Predictions to Profits When investing, why not opt for the forecasts that are almost sure things?
Financial Advisor October 2008 Roy Diliberto	The Dynamic Process Of Monitoring Goals It is our job -- no it is our obligation -- as planners to help our clients achieve their goals and dreams. That may involve changing our portfolios and the way we report results.
HBS Working Knowledge March 13, 2006	Use a Rolling Forecast to Spot Trends An excerpt from Jeremy Hope's new book, Reinventing the CFO, on the concept of the rolling forecast as a flexible and meaningful supplement or alternative to traditional business measures.
The Motley Fool January 4, 2012 Alex Dumortier	5 Predictions You Won't See Elsewhere Financiers, pundits, and experts of all stripes who are always willing, around this time, to offer their predictions for the following year.
The Motley Fool October 3, 2011 Adam J. Crawford	Prediction Markets Market Predictions Let the market weigh in on hot-button topics. When you're trying to predict the market, perhaps you should look at a marketplace for predictions called Intrade.
Finance & Development September 2008	Picture This Economic forecasts: hard to rely on?
InternetNews August 16, 2007 Andy Patrizio	IBM Supercomputer The Latest Olympic Entry A high-performance system will be used to predict the weather around Beijing and how bad the pollution is at any given hour.